On the Geography of Trade:Distance is Alive and Well

Carrere, Celine ; Schiff, Maurice

World Bank, Washington, D.C.

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY;    AGGREGATE TRADE;    AIR CARGO;    AIR CARGO RATES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3206
RP-ID  :  WPS3206

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

It has been widely argued that, with thedecline in trade costs (for example, transport andcommunication costs), the importance of distance hasdeclined over time. If so, this would be a boon forcountries located far from the main centers of economicactivity. The authors examine the evolution ofcountries' distance of trade (DOT) from 1962-2000. Theyfind that the DOT falls over time for the average country inthe world, and that the number of countries with decliningDOT is close to double those with increasing DOT. Thus,distance has become more important over time for a majorityof countries. The authors examine various hypotheses toexplain this phenomenon. One conclusion is that theevolution of the DOT is unrelated to that of the overalltrade costs but depends on the relative evolution of itscomponents. The authors also examine the impact on the DOTof changes in production, customs, and domestic transportcosts; air relative to land and ocean transport costs;competition, exchange rate policy, regional integration,uneven growth, and counter-season trade; and just-in-timeinventory management. An interesting finding is that, thoughregional integration has a negative impact on the DOT, thecountries forming trade blocs had a DOT that was growingfaster or falling more slowly than that of excludedcountries. The authors also offer some insights into howthese changes may affect the home bias in consumption andthe border effect.