Breaking the Waves? Does Education Mediate the Relationship Between Youth Bulges and Political Violence?

Barakat, Bilal ; Urdal, Henrik

关键词: ACCESS TO EDUCATION;    ADULT POPULATION;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    ARMED CONFLICT;    BASIC EDUCATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5114
RP-ID  :  WPS5114

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Much of the developing world hasexperienced a decline in mortality, while fertility oftenhas remained high. This has produced youthful populations inmany countries, generally referred to as "youthbulges." Recent empirical research suggests that youthbulges may be associated with increased risks of politicalviolence and conflict. This paper addresses ways thateducation may serve as a strategy to reduce the risk ofpolitical violence, particularly in the context of largecohorts of young males. The authors use a new educationdataset measuring educational attainment. The dataset isconstructed using demographic back-projection techniques,and offers uninterrupted time-series data for 120 countries.The empirical analysis finds evidence that large, young malepopulation bulges are more likely to increase the risk ofconflict in societies where male secondary education is low.The effect on conflict risk by low education and large youthpopulations is particularly strong in low and middle-incomecountries. This is especially challenging for Sub-SaharanAfrica, the region facing the youngest age structure and thelowest educational attainment levels. Although quantitativestudies generally find a strong relationship betweenindicators of development and conflict risk, the resultssuggest that poor countries do have some leverage overreducing conflict potential through increased educationalopportunities for young people. There is further evidencethat the interaction of large youth cohorts and loweducation levels may be mediated by structural economicfactors. The study supports broad policy interventions ineducation by relaxing concerns about the consequences ofrapid educational expansion.