Long-Term Drivers of Food Prices

Baffes, John ; Dennis, Allen

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL PRICES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6455
RP-ID  :  WPS6455

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

It is becoming increasingly apparentthat the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity priceincreases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar tothe ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) andthe 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character.From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy,fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices wentup by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled.Such price increases, especially in food commodities, notonly fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmedgovernment officials, leading to calls for coordinatedpolicy actions. This paper examines the relativecontribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers toprice changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice,soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-formeconometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The driversinclude stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturingprices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interestrate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates(approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios, 0.25 forthe oil price, -1.25 for the exchange rate, and much lessfor others), the paper estimates the contribution of thesedrivers to food price increases from 1997-2004 to 2005-12.It concludes that most of the price increases are accountedfor by crude oil prices (more than 50 percent), followed bystock-to-use ratios and exchange rate movements, which areestimated at about 15 percent each. Crude oil pricesmattered most during the recent boom period because theyexperienced the largest increase.