Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture

Wang, Jinxia ; Mendelsohn, Robert ; Dinar, Ariel ; Huang, Jikun ; Rozelle, Scott ; Zhang, Lijuan

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRONOMY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4470
RP-ID  :  WPS4470

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Several studies addressing the supplyand demand for food in China suggest that the nation canlargely meet its needs in the coming decades.However,these studies do not consider the effects of climate change.This paper examines whether near future expected changes inclimate are likely to alter this picture. The authorsanalyze the effect of temperature and precipitation on netcrop revenues using a cross section consisting of bothrainfed and irrigated farms.Based on survey data from8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results of theRicardian analysis demonstrate that global warming is likelyto be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be verydifferent in each region.The mid latitude region of Chinamay benefit from warming but the southern and northernregions are likely to be damaged by warming.Moreprecipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in thewet southeast.Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similarresponses to precipitation but not to temperature.Warmertemperatures may benefit irrigated farms but they are likelyto harm rainfed farms.Finally, seasonal effects vary andare offsetting.Although we were able to measure the directeffect of precipitation and temperature, we could notcapture the effects of change in water flow which will bevery important in China.Can China continue feeding itselfif climate changes?Based on the empirical results, thelikely gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset thelosses that will occur to other farmers in China.If futureclimate scenarios lead to significant reductions in water,there may be large damages not addressed in this study.