The Effectiveness of Policies to Control a Human Influenza Pandemic : A Literature Review

Dutta, Arin

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE;    ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME;    AGE DISTRIBUTION;    AGE GROUPS;    AGED;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4524
RP-ID  :  WPS4524

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The studies reviewed in this paperindicate that with adequate preparedness planning andexecution it is possible to contain pandemic influenzaoutbreaks where they occur, for viral strains of moderateinfectiousness. For viral strains of higher infectiousness,containment may be difficult, but it may be possible tomitigate the effects of the spread of pandemic influenzawithin a country and/or internationally with a combinationof policies suited to the origins and nature of the initialoutbreak. These results indicate the likelihood ofcontainment success in 'frontline risk' countries,given specific resource availability and level ofinfectiousness; as well as mitigation success in'secondary' risk countries, given the assumptionof inevitable international transmission through air travelnetworks. However, from the analysis of the modeling resultson interventions in the U.S. and U.K. after a globalpandemic starts, there is a basis for arguing that theemphasis in the secondary risk countries could shift frommitigation towards containment. This follows since amitigation-focused strategy in such developed countriespresupposes that initial outbreak containment in thesecountries will necessarily fail. This is paradoxical ifcontainment success at similar infectiousness of the virusis likely in developing countries with lower public healthresources, based on results using similar modelingmethodologies. Such a shift in emphasis could have majorimplications for global risk management for diseases ofinternational concern such as pandemic influenza or aSARS-like disease.