This paper explores Liberia'spolicy options in support of the development of aMedium-Term Growth and Development Strategy (MTGDS) for2013-2017 and its national vision, Liberia Rising 2030. Atissue is the mismatch between available fiscal space and theenormous development needs that the government must resolveas it prepares to transform the economy into a middle-incomecountry by 2040. This dilemma calls for the newadministration to make trade-offs among various prioritiesif it is to achieve its aspirations. For this purpose, aLiberian version of a single-country Computable GeneralEquilibrium (CGE) model, MAMS (Maquette for MillenniumDevelopment Goal, or MDG simulations), was developed andinformed by analytical studies as well as sector strategiesprepared in support of Liberia's MTGDS. This paperexamines the likely impacts on macroeconomic and socialindicators of alternate strategic policy scenarios. A basescenario (designed to represent a central case for theevolution of Liberia's economy up to 2030) was firstestablished, and thereafter a set of different assumptionswere introduced for the mining sector, government spendingon infrastructure and human development, and foreignborrowing. The paper is organized into five sectionsincluding this introduction. Section two presents the basicfeatures of MAMS. The simulation analysis, which is thefocus of the paper, is covered in the next two sections: thebase scenario in section three and a set of alternativescenarios, which are contrasted with the base scenario, insection four. The final section summarizes the main findingsand conclusion. Appendices one and two include a set offigures with selected simulation results and a briefdiscussion of the Liberian database for MAMS, respectively.
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