China, India, and the Future of the World Economy : Fierce Competition or Shared Growth?

Dimaranan, Betina ; Ianchovichina, Elena ; Martin, Will

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCESSION COMMITMENTS;    ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL;    ADJUSTMENT COSTS;    AGRICULTURE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4304
RP-ID  :  WPS4304

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Although both China and India arelabor-abundant and dependant on manufactures, their exportmixes are very different. Only one product-refinedpetroleum-appears in the top 25 products for both countries,and services exports are roughly twice as important forIndia as for China, which is much better integrated intoglobal production networks. Even assuming India also beginsto integrate into global production chains and expandsexports of manufactures, there seems to be opportunity forrapid growth in both countries. Accelerated growth throughefficiency improvements in China and India, especially intheir high-tech industries, will intensify competition inglobal markets leading to contraction of the manufacturingsectors in many countries. Improvement in the range andquality of exports from China and India has the potential tocreate substantial welfare benefits for the world, and forChina and India, and to act as a powerful offset to theterms-of-trade losses otherwise associated with rapid exportgrowth. However, without efforts to keep up with China andIndia, some countries may see further erosion of theirexport shares and high-tech manufacturing sectors.