Achieving Accelerated and Shared Growth in Ghana : A MAMS-Based Analysis of Costs and Opportunities

Bogetić, Željko ; Medvedev, Denis ; Bussolo, Maurizio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO SAFE WATER;    ACCOUNTING;    ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL;    ADDITIONAL FINANCING;    ALLOCATION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4523
RP-ID  :  WPS4523

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper relies on the recentlydeveloped Maquette for Millennium Development GoalsSimulations (MAMS) model to assess the consistency ofalternative scaling-up and policy packages for growth andachievement of the Millennium Development Goals in Ghana. Inthe baseline scenario, Ghana's strong near andmedium-term growth outlook puts it in a good position toachieve the poverty Millennium Development Goal ahead ofschedule, but other goals are likely to remain elusivebefore 2015. In the accelerated growth scenario-whichaddresses the major gaps in water and sanitation and otherinfrastructure-even more rapid growth and poverty reductionare possible, but important targets in the areas ofeducation, health, and environment remain unattainable.Although growth is complementary to achievement of theMillennium Development Goals, the authors also findimportant growth-human development trade-offs in the nearterm. The estimates show that the resource requirements forachieving the key Millennium Development Goals by 2015 arelarge, reaching US$82 per capita in an illustrativeforeign-grant financed scenario. Increased intake andretention of students contribute to rising scarcity ofunskilled labor, buttressing unskilled wages, while highdemand for skills from the sectors related to the MillenniumDevelopment Goals raises the returns to human capital. Thesedevelopments lead to improvements in the welfare of thepoorest members of Ghanaian society and contribute to asmall reduction in overall inequality.