This paper has two primary objectives.The first objective is to describe our method for predictingthe counterfactual outcomes, and explain the reasons forthis choice. The second is to present estimates of thecounterfactual outcomes. The paper contains the followingsections. Section two provides a description of the vouchersystem before the introduction of SEP (Subvencion EscolarPreferencial program, or Preferential School Subsidy), anexplanation of the main components of SEP, and a summary ofother educational reforms currently undergoing Parliamentaryreview, for which SEP may serve as a valuable pilot. Insection three, we present the methodological approachemployed in this paper to predict the counterfactualoutcomes to which actual outcomes under SEP will becompared. Section four describes the data on students andschools used in this paper. This section also providesinformation on the distributions of grade four prioritystudents and non-priority students among the nation'sthree types of elementary schools in the years 2005-2007 andpredictions of what these distributions will have been in2008 in the absence of SEP. Section five describes thedistributions of achievement of priority students andnon-priority students on SIMCE tests of Spanish,mathematics, and natural and social sciences administered atthe end of the 2005, 2006, and 2007 school years, andpredictions of what the average achievement scores for eachgroup will have been in 2008 had SEP not been introduced.Section six describes trends in achievement gaps betweenpriority and non-priority students and trends in thedecomposition of these gaps into within- and between-schooldifferences. Section seven summarizes the key findings fromthe baseline data analysis. It also describes researchagenda for evaluating the initial impacts of SEP on thedistribution of schools attended by Priority students and onthe achievement of priority students on the SIMCE tests.
PDF
download
878987797
028-85220240
