Horizontal Inequalities, Political Environment, and Civil Conflict : Evidence from 55 Developing Countries, 1986-2003

stby, Gudrun

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ARMED CONFLICT;    ASSET INEQUALITY;    AUTHORITY;    CENSUSES;    CENTRAL AMERICA;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4193
RP-ID  :  WPS4193

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Several studies of civil war haveconcluded that economic inequality between individuals doesnot increase the risk of internal armed conflict. This isperhaps not so surprising. Even though an individual mayfeel frustrated if he is poor compared with otherindividuals in society, he will not start a rebellion on hisown. Civil wars are organized group conflicts, not a matterof individuals randomly committing violence against eachother. Hence, we should not neglect the group aspect ofhuman well-being and conflict. Systematic inequalities thatcoincide with ethnic, religious, or geographical cleavagesin a country are often referred to as horizontalinequalities (or inter-group inequalities). Case studies ofparticular countries as well as some statistical studieshave found that such inequalities between identity groupstend to be associated with a higher risk of internalconflict. But the emergence of violent group mobilization ina country with sharp horizontal inequalities may depend onthe characteristics of the political regime. For example, inan autocracy, grievances that stem from group inequalitiesare likely to be large and frequent, but state repressionmay prevent them from being openly expressed. This paperinvestigates the relationship between horizontalinequalities, political environment, and civil war indeveloping countries. Based on national survey data from 55countries it calculates welfare inequalities between ethnic,religious, and regional groups for each country usingindicators such as household assets and educational levels.All the inequality measures, particularly regionalinequality, are positively associated with higher risks ofconflict outbreak. And it seems that the conflict potentialof regional inequality is stronger for pure democratic andintermediate regimes than for pure autocratic regimes.Institutional arrangements also seem to matter. In fact itseems that the conflict potential of horizontal inequalitiesincreases with more inclusive electoral systems. Finally,the presence of both regional inequalities and politicalexclusion of minority groups seems to make countriesparticularly at risk for conflict. The main policyimplication of these findings is that the combination ofpolitically and economically inclusive government isrequired to secure peace in developing countries.