Asian Century or Multi-polar Century?

Dollar, David

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABUSE;    ADULT POPULATION;    AGRICULTURE;    AIR POLLUTION;    AVERAGE TARIFF;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4174
RP-ID  :  WPS4174

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The "rise of Asia" issomething of a myth. During 1990-2005 China accounted for 28percent of global growth, measured at purchasing powerparity (PPP). India accounted for 9 percent. The rest ofdeveloping Asia, with nearly a billion people, accounted foronly 7 percent, the same as Latin America. Hence there is nogeneral success of Asian developing economies. China hasgrown better than its developing neighbors because itstarted its reform with a better base of human capital, hasbeen more open to foreign trade and investment, and createdgood investment climates in coastal cities. China'ssuccess changes the equation going forward: its wages arenow two to three times higher than in the populous Asiancountries (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, andVietnam), and China will become an ever-larger importer ofnatural resource and labor-intensive products. Developingcountries need to become more open and improve theirinvestment climates to benefit from these opportunities.China itself faces new challenges that could hamper itsfurther development: unsustainable trade imbalance with theUnited States, energy and water scarcity and unsustainableuse of natural resources, and growing inequality and socialtension. To address the first two of these challenges, goodcooperation between China and the United States isessential. The author concludes that we are more likely tobe facing a "multi-polar century," than an Asian century.