Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia's Public Finances

Agustina, Cut Dian R.D. ; Arze del Granado, Javier ; Bulman, Tim ; Fengler, Wolfgang ; Ikhsan, Mohamad

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ALTERNATIVE FUELS;    ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE;    APPROACH;    AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4718
RP-ID  :  WPS4718

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Indonesia's oil revenues and fuelsubsidies dominate the nation's economic policy agenda.This paper estimates the impact of higher international oilprices on the Indonesian government's fiscal positionin 2008 and beyond. It analyzes the interactions betweengovernment revenues and expenditures, as well asinternational oil prices, energy subsidies, andinter-governmental transfers. Looking at the impact of oilprices over US$100 per barrel, the paper presents five mainfindings. First, despite record high oil prices, thegovernment's oil and gas revenues have been decreasingrelative to non-oil and gas revenues since 2001. Second,fuel subsides will reach record levels in 2008 whileelectricity subsidies have been increasing even faster.Third, the paper finds that most of the fuel subsidy thatdirectly benefits households goes to the richest 20 percent.Fourth, even at levels above US$100 per barrel, thegovernment receives more revenues from oil and gas than itspends on energy subsidies. However, due to significantrevenue-sharing with sub-national governments, high oilprices are net-negative for the central government, whilethey create fiscal windfalls for many regions. Finally, theoil sector's positive impact on Indonesia's publicfinances declines as oil prices rise, because subsidies andother expenditures outgrow oil and gas revenues.