An Exploration of the Link between Development, Economic Growth,and Natural Risk

Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ALLOCATIVE EFFICIENCY;    BORROWING;    CAPITAL INVESTMENTS;    CAPITALS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6216
RP-ID  :  WPS6216

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates the link betweendevelopment, economic growth, and the economic losses fromnatural disasters in a general analytical framework, with anapplication to hurricane flood risks in New Orleans. Itconcludes that where capital accumulates through increaseddensity of capital at risk in a given area, and the costs ofprotection therefore increase more slowly than capital atrisk, (i) protection improves over time and the probabilityof disaster occurrence decreases; (ii) capital at risk --and thus economic losses in case of disaster -- increasesfaster than economic growth; (iii) increased risk-takingreinforces economic growth. In this context, average annuallosses from disasters grow with income, and they grow fasterthan income at low levels of development and slower thanincome at high levels of development. These findings arerobust to a broad range of modeling choices and parametervalues, and to the inclusion of risk aversion. They showthat risk-taking is both a driver and a consequence ofeconomic development, and that the world is very likely toexperience fewer but more costly disasters in the future. Itis therefore critical to increase economic resiliencethrough the development of stronger recovery andreconstruction support instruments.