The ASEAN Free Trade Agreement : Impact on Trade Flows and External Trade Barriers

Calvo-Pardo, Hector ; Freund, Caroline ; Ornelas, Emanuel

关键词: ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS;    AGGREGATE TRADE;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;    AVERAGE TARIFFS;    AVERAGE TRADE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4960
RP-ID  :  WPS4960

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Using detailed data on trade and tariffsfrom 1992-2007, the authors examine how the ASEAN Free TradeAgreement has affected trade with nonmembers and externaltariffs facing nonmembers. First, the paper examines theeffect of preferential and external tariff reduction onimport growth from ASEAN insiders and outsiders across HS6-digit industries. The analysis finds no evidence thatpreferential liberalization has led to lower import growthfrom nonmembers. Second, it examines the relationshipbetween preferential tariff reduction and MFN tariffreduction. The analysis finds that preferentialliberalization tends to precede external tariffliberalization. To examine whether this tariffcomplementarity is a result of simultaneous decision making,the authors use the scheduled future preferential tariffreductions (agreed to in 1992) as instruments for actualpreferential tariff changes after the Asia crisis. Theresults remain unchanged, suggesting that there is a causalrelationship between preferential and MFN tariff reduction.The findings also indicate that external liberalization wasrelatively sharper in the products where preferences arelikely to be most damaging, proving further support for acausal effect. Overall, the results imply that the ASEANagreement has been a force for broader liberalization.