Benefits of the ECOWAS CET and EPA Will Outweigh Costs in Nigeria, but Competitiveness is the Real Issue

Coste, Antoine ; von Uexkull, Erik

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADJUSTMENT ASSISTANCE;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS;    APPAREL;    AVERAGE TARIFF;    AVERAGE TARIFFS;   

RP-ID  :  93642

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This note analyzes the benefits ofECOWAS Common External Tariff (CET) and Economic PartnershipAgreement (EPA) will outweigh costs in Nigeria, butcompetitiveness is the real issue.After decade-longnegotiations, the ECOWAS CET and EPA with the EU recentlyreached decisive milestones. These major reforms should havesignificant impacts and offer new opportunities to WestAfrica, but have so far failed to garner a broad consensus,notably in Nigeria. The lack of objective and easilyaccessible assessments of their likely effects appears to bepartly responsible for this situation. Two recent World Bankstudies use a simple methodology to assess the potentialimpact of these reforms on Nigeria. Overall, fullimplementation of the CET and EPA in Nigeria would result inlimited fiscal losses, marginal welfare gains for consumersand higher profits for a majority of manufacturing firmsaccounting for the majority of jobs in this sector. Almostall firms experiencing negative effects exhibithigher-than-average profitability before the reforms andmost would remain profitable after them. The predictedmagnitude of both the CET and EPA is small compared to gainsthat could be achieved by tackling supply-side constraintsfaced by Nigerian firms. Combining trade policy reforms withan ambitious competitiveness agenda that addresses the mostbinding constraints and promotes regional trade appears asthe best way to maximize the benefits and minimize thepotential cost of these reforms.