Exposure to Floods, Climate Change, and Poverty in Vietnam

Bangalore, Mook ; Smith, Andrew ; Veldkamp, Ted

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: flood risk;    poverty;    climate change;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7765
RP-ID  :  WPS7765

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

With 70 percent of its population livingin coastal areas and low-lying deltas, Vietnam is exposed tomany natural hazards, including river and coastal flooding.These hazards are expected to worsen due to climate change,and the impacts of any change in hazard magnitude may beparticularly acute in this region. This paper examines theexposure of the population and poor people in particular tocurrent and future flooding at the country level, using newhigh-resolution flood hazard maps and spatial socioeconomicdata. The paper also examines flood exposure and poverty atthe local level within Ho Chi Minh City. The national-levelanalysis finds that a third (33 percent) of today’spopulation is already exposed to a flood, which occurs onceevery 25 years, assuming no protection. For the same returnperiod flood under current socioeconomic conditions, climatechange may increase the number exposed to 38 to 46 percentof the population. Climate change impacts can make frequentevents as important as rare ones in terms of exposure: forinstance, the estimates suggest a 25-year flood under futureconditions can expose more people than a 200-year floodunder current conditions. Although poor districts are notfound to be more exposed to floods at the national level,the city-level analysis of Ho Chi Minh City providesevidence that slum areas are more exposed than other partsof the city. The results of this paper show the benefits ofinvesting today in flood risk management, and can provideguidance as to where future investments may be targeted.Furthermore, while the main strategy in Vietnam today tomanage flood risk is to reduce exposure, the increase inexposure estimated in this paper provides support thatalternative strategies to reduce vulnerability (such asfinancing for floor-raising) or improve the ability-to-adaptof households (such as social safety nets) may warrantincreased attention.