Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Future Vietnamese Households : A Micro-Simulation Approach

Rozenberg, Julie ; Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: poverty;    climate change;    shared socioeconomic pathways;    uncertainty;    inequality;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7766
RP-ID  :  WPS7766

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The impacts of climate change on povertydepend on the magnitude of climate change, but also ondemographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis ofhundreds of baseline scenarios for future economicdevelopment in the absence of climate change in Vietnamshows that the main determinant of the eradication ofextreme poverty by 2030 is the income of unskilledagriculture workers, followed by redistribution policies.Results from sector analyses of climate change impacts—inagriculture, health, and natural disasters—are introduced ineach of the hundreds scenarios. By 2030 climate change isfound to have a significant impact on poverty in Vietnam inabout a quarter of the scenarios, with 400,000 to more thana million people living in extreme poverty just because ofclimate change impacts. Those scenarios in which climatechange pushes the most people into poverty are scenarioswith slow structural change away from agriculture, lowproductivity growth in agriculture, high population growth,and low redistribution levels. Conversely, in scenarios withrapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development, climatechange has no impact on extreme poverty, although it stillhas an impact on the income of the bottom 40 percent.