Socioeconomic Resilience : Multi-Hazard Estimates in 117 Countries

Hallegatte, Stephane ; Bangalore, Mook ; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: natural disasters;    vulnerability;    poverty;    wellbeing;    climate change;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7886
RP-ID  :  WPS7886

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a model to assessthe socioeconomic resilience to natural disasters of aneconomy, defined as its capacity to mitigate the impact ofdisaster-related asset losses on welfare. The paper proposesa tool to help decision makers identify the most promisingpolicy options to reduce welfare losses from naturaldisasters. Applied to riverine and storm surge floods,earthquakes, windstorms, and tsunamis in 117 countries, themodel provides estimates of country-level socioeconomicresilience. Because hazards disproportionally affect poorpeople, each $1 of global natural disaster-related assetloss is equivalent to a $1.6 reduction in the affectedcountry’s national income, on average. The model alsoassesses policy levers to reduce welfare losses in eachcountry. It shows that considering asset losses isinsufficient to assess disaster risk management policies.The same reduction in asset losses results in differentwelfare gains depending on who (especially poor or nonpoorhouseholds) benefits. And some policies, such as adaptivesocial protection, do not reduce asset losses, but stillreduce welfare losses. Post-disaster transfers bring anestimated benefit of at least $1.30 per dollar disbursed inthe 117 countries studied, and their efficiency is not verysensitive to targeting errors.