With a Little Help : Shocks, Agricultural Income, and Welfare in Uganda

Hill, Ruth ; Mejia-Mantilla, Carolina

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: weather shocks;    prices;    welfare;    vulnerability;    poverty;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7935
RP-ID  :  WPS7935

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Global poverty is becoming increasinglyconcentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and among householdsengaged in subsistence agriculture in environmentscharacterized by uncertainty. Understanding how to achievesustainable increases in household incomes in this contextis key to ending extreme poverty.Uganda offers importantlessons in this regard. Uganda experienced conflict,drought, and price volatility in the decade from 2003 to2013, while at the same time experiencing the second fastestpercentage point reduction in extreme poverty per year inSub-Saharan Africa. This study analyzes a nationallyrepresentative panel of 2,356 households visited four timesbetween 2006 to 2012, in combination with data on conflictevents, weather, and prices. The study describes the type ofincome growth households experienced and assesses theimportance of these external events in determining progress.The study finds substantial growth in agricultural incomes,particularly among poorer households. Many of the gains inagricultural income growth came about because of goodweather, peace, and prices, and not technological change orprofound changes in agricultural production. Therefore,although overall progress during this period was good, therewere years in which average income growth was negative. Thiswas particularly the case in the poorer and more vulnerableNorthern and Eastern regions, and thus their overall incomegrowth was also slower.