Model and Methods for Estimating the Number of People Living in Extreme Poverty Because of the Direct Impacts of Natural Disasters

Rozenberg, Julie ; Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: development;    poverty;    natural disasters;    climate vulnerability;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7887
RP-ID  :  WPS7887

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Natural disasters have an impact onpoverty through many different channels -- economic growth,health, schooling, behaviors -- that are difficult toquantify. It is nonetheless possible to assess theshort-term impacts of income losses. A counterfactualscenario is built of what people's income would be indeveloping countries in the absence of natural disasters.This scenario uses surveys of 1.4 million households in 89countries. Depending on where they live and work, what theyconsume, and the nature of their vulnerability, theadditional income that each household in the survey couldearn every year on average in the absence of naturaldisasters is calculated. The analysis concludes that if alldisasters could be prevented next year, 26 million fewerpeople would be in extreme poverty—that is, living on lessthan $1.90 a day. A systematic analysis of the uncertaintysuggests that this impact could lie between 7 million if allthe most optimistic assumptions are combined, and 77 millionif we retain only the most pessimistic assumptions.