The Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty in 2030 and the Potential from Rapid, Inclusive, and Climate-Informed Development

Rozenberg, Julie ; Hallegatte, Stephane

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: SANITATION;    POVERTY THRESHOLD;    INCOME ON FOOD;    JOBS;    IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7483
RP-ID  :  WPS7483

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The impacts of climate change on povertydepend on the magnitude of climate change, but also ondemographic and socioeconomic trends. An analysis ofhundreds of baseline scenarios for future economicdevelopment in the absence of climate change in 92 countriesshows that the drivers of poverty eradication differ acrosscountries. Two representative scenarios are selected fromthese hundreds. One scenario is optimistic regarding povertyand is labeled “prosperity;” the other scenario ispessimistic and labeled “poverty.” Results from sectoranalyses of climate change impacts—in agriculture, health,and natural disasters—are introduced in the two scenarios.By 2030, climate change is found to have a significantimpact on poverty, especially through higher food prices andreduction of agricultural production in Africa and SouthAsia, and through health in all regions. But the magnitudeof these impacts depends on development choices. In theprosperity scenario with rapid, inclusive, andclimate-informed development, climate change increasespoverty by between 3 million and 16 million in 2030. Theincrease in poverty reaches between 35 million and 122million if development is delayed and less inclusive (thepoverty scenario).