Examining the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in India through Daily Electricity Consumption andNighttime Light Intensity

Beyer, Robert C.M. ; Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian ; Galdo, Virgilio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CORONAVIRUS;    COVID-19;    PANDEMIC IMPACT;    LOCKDOWN;    ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9291
RP-ID  :  WPS9291

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The COVID-19 pandemic has disruptedeconomic activity in India. Adjusting policies to containtrans- mission while mitigating the economic impact requiresan assessment of the economic situation in near real-timeand at high spatial granularity. This paper shows that dailyelectricity consumption and monthly nighttime lightintensity can proxy for economic activity in India. Energyconsumption is compared with the predictions of aconsumption model that explains 90 percent of the variationin normal times. Energy consumption declined strongly aftera national lockdown was implemented on March 25, 2020 andremained a quarter below normal levels throughout April. Itrecovered somewhat subsequently, but electricity consumptionwas on average still 13.5 percent lower than normal in May.Not all states and union territories have been affectedequally. While electricity consumption halved in some,others were not affected at all. Part of the heterogeneityis explained by the prevalence of manufacturing and returnmigration. At the district level, higher COVID-19 infectionrates were associated with larger declines in nighttimelight intensity in April. Together, daily electricityconsumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoringeconomic activity in near real-time and high spatial granularity.