Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets

Kabundi, Alain ; Ohnsorge, Franziska

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: OIL PRICES;    COVID-19;    PANDEMIC IMPACT;    CORONAVIRUS;    MACROECONOMIC IMPACT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-9403
RP-ID  :  WPS9403

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oilprices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by farthe most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970.This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse andits drivers with previous ones in an event study. It findsthat it was associated with an exceptionally severe plungein oil demand. Second, in a local projections model, thispaper estimates the implications of demand- andsupply-driven oil price collapses for growth in emergingmarkets and developing economies (EMDEs). The paper findsthat steep oil price collapses were associated withsignificant and lasting output losses in energy-exportingEMDEs but no meaningful output gains in energy-importingEMDEs. These results are robust to multiple robustness checks.