Social Protection in the Face of Climate Change : Targeting Principles and Financing Mechanisms

Carter, Michael R. ; Janzen, Sarah A.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;    JOBS;    RISKS;    HOLDING;    FOOD NEEDS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7476
RP-ID  :  WPS7476

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Climate risk is an important driver oflong-term poverty dynamics, especially in rural regions.This paper builds a dynamic, multi-generation householdmodel of consumption, accumulation, and risk management todraw out the full consequences of exposure to climate risk.The model incorporates the long-term impacts of consumptionshortfalls, induced by the optimal “asset smoothing” copingbehavior of the vulnerable, on the human capital andlong-term wellbeing of families. The analysis shows that thelong-term level and depth of poverty can be improved byincorporating elements of “vulnerability-targeted socialprotection” into a conventional system of social protection.The paper also explores the degree to whichvulnerability-targeted social protection can be implementedthrough a subsidized insurance mechanism. The analysis showsthat insurance-based vulnerability-targeted socialprotection dominates (in economic growth and povertyreduction measures) both in-kind transfer mechanisms andvulnerability-targeted protection paid for using a publicbudget. The relative gains brought about by this scheme ofinsurance-augmented social protection increase—at least fora while—under climate change scenarios. However, if climatechange becomes too severe, then even this novel form ofsocial protection loses its ability to stabilize the extentand depth of poverty.