Do Countries Learn from Experience in Infrastructure PPP? : PPP Practice and Contract Cancellation

Marcelo, Darwin ; House, Schuyler ; Mandri-Perrott, Cledan ; Schwartz, Jordan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS;    PPPs;    CONTRACT CANCELLATION;    MIXED-EFFECT PROBIT MODEL;    LINEAR SPLINE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-8054
RP-ID  :  WPS8054

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Learning from experience to improvefuture infrastructure public-private partnerships is a focalissue for policy makers, financiers, implementers, andprivate sector stakeholders. An extensive body of casestudies and "lessons learned" aims to improve thelikelihood of success and attempts to avoid future contractfailures across sectors and geographies. This paper examineswhether countries do, indeed, learn from experience toimprove the probability of success of public-privatepartnerships at the national level. The purview of the paperis not to diagnose learning across all aspects ofpublic-private partnerships globally, but rather to focus onwhether experience has an effect on the most extreme casesof public-private partnership contract failure, prematurecontract cancellation. The analysis utilizes mixed-effectsprobit regression combined with spline models to testempirically whether general public-private partnershipexperience has an impact on reducing the chances of contractcancellation for future projects. The results confirm whatthe market intuitively knows, that is, that public-privatepartnership experience reduces the likelihood of contractcancellation. But the results also provide a perhaps lessintuitive finding: the benefits of learning are typicallyconcentrated in the first few public-private partnershipdeals. Moreover, the results show that the probability ofcancellation varies across sectors and suggests the relativecomplexity of water public-private partnerships comparedwith energy and transport projects. An estimated $1.5billion per year could have been saved with interventionsand support to reduce cancellations in less experiencedcountries (those with fewer than 23 prior public-private partnerships).