Losing the Gains of the Past : The Welfare and Distributional Impacts of the Twin Crises in Iraq 2014

Krishnan, Nandini ; Olivieri, Sergio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: HOUSEHOLD INCOMES;    LIVING STANDARDS;    PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION;    HOUSEHOLD SIZE;    HOUSEHOLD SURVEY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7567
RP-ID  :  WPS7567

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Iraq was plunged into two simultaneouscrises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharpdecline in oil prices, the other, by the war against theIslamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrentnature of these crises demand a fast understanding andquantification of their welfare impact, which is criticalfor policy makers. This paper employs an innovativeextension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide anex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamicpoverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. Theresults show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gainsof the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While theincidence of poverty is higher among internally displacedpersons than the rest of the population (except in theIslamic State–affected governorates, where poverty ishigher), internally displaced persons make up only a smallproportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. Therest comprise of households who already lived below thepoverty line, or those who have fallen below the povertyline in the face of the massive economic disruptions thecountry is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varieswidely across space, with the largest increases in povertyheadcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State–affectedgovernorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisisscenario are the same as in 2012, the currently IslamicState–affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results arenot strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates,because of survey coverage constraints, overall the resultsare very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.