Use of Catastrophe Risk Models in Assessing Sovereign Food Security for Risk Transfer

Sharma, Mohan ; Hohl, Roman

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FOOD PRICE;    SAFETY NET PROGRAMS;    RISKS;    FOOD NEEDS;    HOUSEHOLD SURVEY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7360
RP-ID  :  WPS7360

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper discusses how catastrophecrop risk models can be used to assess food security needsat the sovereign level for the purpose of risk transfer. Therationale for a system to evaluate food security needs atthe national level is discussed. The role of technology andremote sensing data availability as an enabler ofcatastrophe crop risk models is discussed followed by adescription of the framework of catastrophe crop models fordroughts, representing the peril for which catastrophemodels have had the most success. The integration of theoutput of catastrophe crop models with a food securityvulnerability assessment model is described next. Recentadvances in analytical modeling of various types of shocksin assessing food security are described but the operationaluse of these analytical models in the development of foodsecurity assessment for risk transfer is seen to be limitedfor now because of the complexity of these analyticalmodels. The food security vulnerability modeling in theAfrican Risk Capacity, ARC, model is then described asshowing a practical solution to the complex problem ofassessing food security via a model. Lastly, the challengesfaced in risk transfer of sovereign food security risks are discussed.