Linking Risk Models to Microeconomic Indicators

Anttila‐Hughes, Jesse ; Sharma, Mohan

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: FLOODING;    IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;    RISKS;    VARIABILITY;    ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7359
RP-ID  :  WPS7359

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Catastrophe risk models are quantitativemodels used to estimate probabilistic loss distributions fora specified range of assets subject to a baseline level ofdisaster risk. While cat risk models are used extensively bythe insurance and reinsurance industry to estimate expectedlosses to insured assets, their ability to estimate damagesoutside of a narrow range of physical assets such asbuildings or infrastructure is still limited. This paperfirst provides a brief outline of cat risk models as theycurrently exist, and then outlines the major econometricissues involved in incorporating research from the growingliterature on the microeconomic impacts of disasters into acat model framework. Attention is specifically drawn toissues arising from the generally low recurrence frequenciesof disasters, the likely role of difficult-to-documentindirect damages in influencing total disaster costs, andissues related to generalizing disaster response functionsacross different domains. The paper ends by noting the largediscrepancy between the current state of the literature ondisaster impacts on microeconomic indicators and the levelneeded for adequate cat risk model performance, and suggestsmeans of closing that gap as well as potential areas forfuture research.