Revisiting the Impact of the Brazilian SIMPLES Program on Firms' Formalization Rates

Piza, Caio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: METHODS;    MANUFACTURING;    EMPLOYMENT;    DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH;    FIRMS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7605
RP-ID  :  WPS7605

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

A recent survey of rigorous impactevaluations of programs to help small and medium-size firmsto formalize indicates that the programs do not seem to workfor most informal firms. One of the few exceptions findslarge effects of a tax simplification program in Brazilcalled SIMPLES on firms' formalization rates andperformance indicators. Using the same data set but adifferent identification strategy, another study concludesthat the program had limited effect on formalization rates.The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it revisits the twostudies to reconcile their conflicting conclusions. Second,it investigates the validity of the identification strategyof both studies. The findings suggest that the conflictingresults between the two studies are caused by the dates eachused to identify when the program was put into effect. Arobustness check indicates that data heaping and seasonalityaround November cast doubts on the identification strategyused in both studies to estimate the effect of thisparticular program.