Trade Developments in 2016 : Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade

Constantinescu, Cristina ; Mattoo, Aaditya ; Ruta, Michele

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: trade;    services trade;    trade policy;    global value chains;    trade liberalization;   

RP-ID  :  112930

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This edition of Global Trade Watch addresses three questions concerning recent trade developments: What is happening? Why? Does it matter? 2016 is the fifth consecutive year of sluggish trade growth and the year with the weakest trade performance since the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis. Current estimates of growth in the volumes of trade in goods and services range from 1.9 percent to 2.5 percent; preliminary high-frequency data suggest that merchandise trade volumes may have grown by slightly above 1 percent. The year 2016 is different from the other post crisis years, in that trade sluggishness is a characteristic of both advanced and emerging economies.