Bangladesh is one of the most denselypopulated countries in the world. Owing to its low-lyingtopography, dense river network, location, and climate, itis exposed to a range of water and climate-related hazards.Tropical cyclones are among the most severe of thesehazards.A key focus for improving disaster preparednessand early warning systems in Bangladesh is improved leadtimes for tropical cyclone forecasting including the qualityand skill of the forecast. At present, the lead time fortropical cyclone forecast used by the BangladeshMeteorological Department (BMD), the main government agencyresponsible for issuing forecasts for tropical cyclone andstorm surges, is three days. If lead times of 10 to 15 dayswith relatively high accuracy are possible, as the EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) suggests, why isit not being done in Bangladesh and what can be done toimprove the forecast lead time? This question motivated thewriting of this paper. Critical to extending the lead timesfor forecasting is a better understanding of the factorsthat limit increasing the lead time of current forecasts.This book is arranged as follows: Chapter 1 givesdescription of the background and rationale for the report;Chapter 2 describes current global operational practices forforecasting tropical cyclones and storm surges, includingpractices at other national agencies; Chapter 3 assesses theextent to which Bangladesh uses international and regionaloperational practices and the technical and governanceissues that limit their use; and Chapter 4 provides asummary and recommendations.
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