Green Growth Opportunities for the Decarbonization Goal for Chile : Report on the Macroeconomic Effects of Implementing Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Chile 2020

Antosiewicz, Mareck ; Gonzá ; les Carrasco, Luis E. ; Lewandowski, Piotr ; de la Maza Greene, Nicolá ; s

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION;    DSGE MODELING;    ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS;    LOW-CARBON TRANSITION;    GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS;   

RP-ID  :  151556

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The study presents the results of modelsimulations showing the macroeconomic effects of theimplementation of key climate change mitigation policies inChile, aimed to reduce CO2eq emissions in accordance withChilean latest NDC and a target of zero net CO2eq emissionsby 2050. By using a multi-sector macroeconomic generalequilibrium model, the study shows that the implementationof the proposed policy package could have an overallpositive impact on the economy both in the short and longrun, as measured by the effect on economic indicators suchas GDP, and ensures decoupling of growth from fossil fueluse. Per the analysis, the expected level of GDP by 2050could increase up to 4,4 percent when compared to thebaseline scenario, which corresponds to a higher rate ofgrowth of 0.13 p.p. Main contribution to GDP is expectedfrom increased private consumption and investment, with anestimated 2.4 and 1.7 percent respectively. Since positiveeconomic and financial implications could arise from theimplementation of the proposed mitigation package, theunsolicited participation of the private sector could beexpected and enhanced. Remaining questions and discussionsfrom the study relate to limitations for the uptake ofmitigation measures sooner than long term scenarios. Thestudy evaluated the macroeconomic impact of implementing amitigation package aligned with the achievement of therecent updated Chilean NDC and committed zero net CO2eqemissions by 2050.