Middle East and North Africa Economic Developments and Prospects 2006 : Financial Markets in a New Age of Oil

World Bank

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: ACCOUNTABILITY;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    ARAB REPUBLIC OF;    AVERAGE OIL PRICE;    BALANCE;   

RP-ID  :  39408

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This edtion of the Middle East and NorthAfrica (MENA) economic developments and prospects reportshighlights the recent key economic developments as well asthe forces underlying the region's economic outcomes.It analyzes the region's medium term growth prospectsgiven global forecasts, and charts the region?s progresswith implementing comprehensive structural reforms neededfor longer-term growth. For the third year in a row, MENAenjoyed a spectacular year of growth, buoyed by record highgrowth rates among the region's oil exporters. As oilprices continued their upward climb, the MENA region grew byan average of 6.0 percent over 2005, up from 5.6 percentover 2004, and compared with average growth of only 3.5percent over the late 1990s. On an annual basis, MENA'saverage economic growth over the last three years, at 6.2percent per year, has been the highest three-year growthperiod for the region since the late 1970s. MENA'sregional growth upturn has not been universally shared,however, and resource poor economies are increasinglyfeeling the adverse impact of higher oil prices. Growthpatterns among oil producers, on the other hand, have beenincreasingly harmonized, reflecting a trend toward commondevelopment strategies. Over the medium term, generalconditions for maintaining a solid pace for growth appearpromising. The oil shock MENA is experiencing has hadimportant financial spillovers. Over the last few years,MENA has seen an upsurge in financial activity, as abundantliquidity has fed a rapid rise in credit growth, surgingstock markets, and a booming real estate sector. A troublingaspect about MENA's financial markets is the seemingdisconnect between the financial sector and the real privateeconomy, despite the appearance of a relatively deepfinancial sector by macroeconomic indicators. Along withacross the board policy reform, MENA economies continue tolook to selective industrial policies designed to enhancespecific sector competitiveness and growth to complementmore broad-based structural reform. Although the views onindustrial policy are changing, and a variety of economicjustifications can be made for their use, MENA's ownunsuccessful history with industrial policies (and thedifficulty in transitioning out of them) should serve as acautious reminder that the most effective policies forpromoting growth rely on strategies to create a neutral andinternationally competitive business environment.