Lao PDR Economic Monitor, December 2011 : Sustaining Growth Coping with Rising Uncertainty

World Bank

World Bank, Vientiane

关键词: ADVANCED ECONOMIES;    ADVERSE IMPACT;    AGRICULTURE;    AVERAGE OIL PRICE;    BALANCE OF PAYMENT;   

RP-ID  :  66140

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Lao PDR economy continues to growvigorously at 8 percent this year despite the impact oftyphoons and slower growth in the global economy. That beingsaid, the country's growth estimate was revisedslightly downwards to 8 percent from an early estimate of8.6 percent to account for (i) the adverse impact onagriculture by the typhoons Haima and Nock ten during thesecond half of the year as well as the adverse impact of thecurrent flooding in Thailand on Lao PDR's tourism andtrade sectors; (ii) an upward revision of 2010 Goss DomesticProduct (GDP) due to a higher than anticipated output ofelectricity generation from the Nam Theun 2 project; and(iii) the commencement of operations at the Nam Ngum 2hydropower dam. The mining sector's contribution togrowth in 2011 is expected to slow according to companyproduction plans and actual outputs in the first 3 quartersof this year. The manufacturing sector is projected to growat 15 percent driven by garment, construction materials, andfood and beverage production. The garment sector startedshifting production towards higher value-added products andbegan benefiting this year from the European Union (EU)relaxing material sourcing regulations for LDCs. Theservices sector is also benefiting from higher domesticdemand, particularly for wholesale, retail trading andtelecommunications. With significant challenges and risksahead - increasing uncertainties, particularly on signs ofspreads of debt concerns in Europe, over-heating in emergingeconomies (high inflation) and price volatility, globaleconomic growth is projected to slow in 2011 and 2012.Emerging and developing economies are projected toexperience healthy growth in the near term. Challenges lieon two main fronts, i.e. rebalancing from public to privatedemand, particularly in advanced economies and rebalancingdomestic demand, particularly in emerging and developingeconomies in order to promote resilience to external shocksand further reduce inflationary pressures. This paper basesits country-level projections for Lao PDR's ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) and export demand on InternationalMonetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank's projections(EAP Update Nov-2011) for the regional and global economicoutlook and commodity prices.