Postconflict Monetary Reconstruction

Adam, Christopher ; Collier, Paul ; Davies, Victor A.B.

World Bank

关键词: asset substitution;    assets;    capital flight;    discount rate;    inflation;   

RP-ID  :  1

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

During civil wars governments typically resort to inflation to raise revenue. A model of this phenomenon is presented, estimated, and applied to the choices and constraints faced during the postconflict period. The results show that far from there being a fiscal peace dividend, postconflict governments tend to face even more pressing needs after than during war. As a result, in the absence of postconflict aid, inflation increases sharply, frustrating a more general monetary recovery. Aid decisively transforms the path of monetary variables in the postconflict period, enabling the economy to regain peacetime characteristics. Postconflict aid thus achieves a monetary "reconstruction" analogous to its more evident role in infrastructure.