The Recalibration of the National Transport Model: PASS1 Demand Model Calibration

Eric Petersen ; Hugh Gunn ; Aruna Sivakumar ; Flavia Tsang

RAND Corporation

RAND Corporation

关键词: Science and Technology;    Modeling and Simulation;    United Kingdom;    Transportation;    Infrastructure and Transportation;    Statistical Analysis Methodology;   

RP-ID  :  TR-582-DFT

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

美国|英语

来源: RAND Corporation Published Research

【 摘 要 】

This reports documents the results obtained from the re-estimation of the models which apportion travel to destination area types, distance bands and travel modes for the main demand modelling stage (“PASS1”) of the UK National Travel Model (NTM). The major technical differences introduced to the estimation technique in this study are in the replacement of an aggregate process adopted in the previous estimation with a disaggregate modelling approach based on formal statistical procedures. The database has also been updated to use the National Travel Survey data of 2002 through 2004. The model itself has been left largely unchanged in structure, by design, although a number of tests of alternative structures were made, but advantage has been taken of the new estimation approach, and the increased level of detail in the later datasets, to extend the geographic detail of the model, in particular increasing the number of area types represented, and the number of travel modes identified in the model.