Low Probability Tail Event Analysis and Mitigation in the BPA Control Area

Lu, Shuai ; Brothers, Alan J. ; McKinstry, Craig A. ; Jin, Shuangshuang ; Makarov, Yuri V.

关键词: MITIGATION;    POWER SYSTEMS;    PROBABILITY Electric Power;    Wind Generation;    Bayesian Net;    Tail Event;    Decision Support;   

DOI  :  10.2172/1012895
RP-ID  :  PNNL-20120
PID  :  OSTI ID: 1012895
Others  :  Other: 400480000
Others  :  TRN: US201110%%456

学科分类：电力

美国|英语

来源: SciTech Connect

【 摘 要 】

This report investigated the uncertainties with the operations of the power system and their contributions to tail events, especially under high penetration of wind. A Bayesian network model is established to quantify the impact of these uncertainties on system imbalance. The framework is presented for a decision support tool, which can help system operators better estimate the need for balancing reserves and prepare for tail events.