Exploring the future electric vehicle market and its impacts with an agent-based spatial integrated framework: A case study of Beijing, China

JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION

卷:221

Article

Zhuge, Chengxiang^1,2,3  Wei, Binru⁴  Dong, Chunjiao⁵  Shao, Chunfu⁵  Shan, Yuli² 

[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Downing Pl, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England

[2] Univ East Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR1 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[3] Beijing Jiaotong Univ, MOE Key Lab Transportat Complex Syst Theory & Tec, 3 Shangyuancun, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China

[4] Univ Cambridge, Dept Land Econ, 19 Silver St, Cambridge CB3 9EP, England

[5] Beijing Jiaotong Univ, Key Lab Transport Ind Big Data Applicat Technol C, Minist Transport, 3 Shangyuancun, Beijing 100044, Peoples R China

关键词: Electric vehicle market;    Agent-based model;    Environmental impact;    Power grid system;    Transport infrastructure;    Beijing;    SelfSim;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.02.262

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

This paper investigates the potential expansion and impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) market in Beijing, China at the micro level with an agent-based integrated urban model (SelfSim-EV), considering the interactions, feedbacks and dynamics found in the complex urban system. Specifically, a calibrated and validated SelfSim-EV Beijing model was firstly used to simulate how the EV market might expand in the context of urban evolution from 2016 to 2020, based on which the potential impacts of EV market expansion on the environment, power grid system and transportation infrastructures were assessed at the multiple resolutions. The results suggest that 1) the adoption rate of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) increases over the period, whereas the rate of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) almost remains the same; Furthermore, the so-called neighbour effects appear to influence the uptake of BEVs, based on the spatial analyses of the residential locations of BEV owners; 2) the EV market expansion could eventually benefit the environment, as evident from the slight decrease in the amounts of HC, CO and CO2 emissions after 2017; 3) Charging demand accounting for around 4% of total residential electricity demand in 2020 may put slight pressure on the power grid system; 4) the EV market expansion could influence several EV-related transport facilities, including parking lots, refuelling stations, and charging posts at parking lots, in terms of quantity, layout and usage. These results are expected to be useful for different EV-related stakeholders, such as local authorities and manufacturers, to shape polices and invest in technologies and infrastructures for EVs. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free