The normal fire environment Modeling environmental suitability for large forest wildfires using past, present, and future climate normals

FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT

卷:390

Article

Davis, Raymond¹  Yang, Zhiqiang²  Yost, Andrew³  Belongie, Cole⁴  Cohen, Warren⁵ 

[1] US Forest Serv, Pacific Northwest Reg, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[2] Oregon State Univ, Dept Forest Ecosyst & Soc, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[3] Oregon Dept Forestry, 2600 State St, Salem, OR 97321 USA

[4] US Forest Serv, Natl Interagency Fire Ctr, 3833 South Dev Ave, Boise, ID 83705 USA

[5] US Forest Serv, Pacific Northwest Res Stn, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

关键词: Fire environment;    Climate change;    Fire rotation period;    PRISM, NEX-DCP30;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.foreco.2017.01.027

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

We modeled the normal fire environment for occurrence of large forest wildfires (>40 ha) for the Pacific Northwest Region of the United States. Large forest wildfire occurrence data from the recent climate normal period (1971-2000) was used as the response variable and fire season precipitation, maximum temperature, slope, and elevation were used as predictor variables. A projection of our model onto the 20012030 climate normal period showed strong agreement between model predictions and the area of forest burned by large wildfires from 2001 to 2015 (independent fire data). We then used downscaled climate projections for two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and over 30 climate models to project changes in environmental suitability for large forest fires over the 21st century. Results indicated an increasing proportion of forested area with fire environments more suitable for the occurrence of large wildfires over the next century for all ecoregions but less pronounced for the Coast Range and Puget Lowlands. The largest increases occurred on federal lands, while private and state lands showed less. We calculated fire rotation periods for the recent historical and current climate and examined the relative differences between them and our modeled large wildfire suitability classes. By the end of the century, the models predicted shorter fire rotation periods, with cooler/moister forests experiencing larger magnitudes of change than warmer/drier forests. Modeling products, including a set of time series maps, can provide forest resource managers, fire protection agencies, and policy-makers empirical estimates of how much and where climate change might affect the geographic distribution of large wildfires and effect fire rotations. Published by Elsevier B.V.

【 授权许可】

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