Effects of global climate change on the US forest sector: response functions derived from a dynamic resource and market simulator

Climate Research

Bruce A. McCarl¹  Chi-Chung Chen¹  Darius M. Adams¹  Diana Burton¹  Ralph J. Alig¹ 

关键词: Climate change;    US forest;    Sector analysis;    Response function;   

DOI  :  10.3354/cr015195

来源: Inter-Research Science Publishing

【 摘 要 】

ABSTRACT: A multiperiod, regional, mathematical programming economic model is used to evaluate the potential economic impacts of global climatic change on the US forest sector. A wide range of scenarios for the biological response of forests to climatechange are developed, ranging from small to large changes in forest growth rates. These scenarios are simulated in the economic forest sector model and results are summarized in response functions that may be used instead of rerunning the model asimproved or altered biological response scenarios arise. The response functions are used to characterize broad impacts of climate change on the sector. We find that aggregate impacts (across all consumers and producers in the sector) are relatively smallbut that producers income and future welfare 30 to 40 yr in the future are most at risk. The forest sector is found to have adjustment mechanisms that mitigate climate change impacts, including interregional migration of production, substitution inconsumption, and altered stand management.

【 授权许可】

Unknown