Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium

QUATERNARY SCIENCE REVIEWS

卷:145

Article

Esper, Jan¹  Krusic, Paul J.^2,3  Ljungqvist, Fredrik C.^4,5  Luterbacher, Juerg^6,7  Carrer, Marco⁸  Cook, Ed⁹  Davi, Nicole K.^9,10  Hartl-Meier, Claudia¹  Kirdyanov, Alexander^11,12  Konter, Oliver¹  Myglan, Vladimir¹³  Timonen, Mauri¹⁴  Treydte, Kerstin¹⁵  Trouet, Valerie¹⁶  Villalba, Ricardo¹⁷  Yang, Bao¹⁸  Buntgen, Ulf¹⁵ 

[1] Johannes Gutenberg Univ Mainz, Dept Geog, D-55099 Mainz, Germany

[2] Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[3] Navarino Environm Observ, Messinia, Greece

[4] Stockholm Univ, Dept Hist, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[5] Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[6] Univ Giessen, Dept Geog, D-35390 Giessen, Germany

[7] Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res, D-35390 Giessen, Germany

[8] Univ Padua, Dipartimento Territorio & Sistemi AgroForestali, I-35020 Legnaro, Italy

[9] Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY 10964 USA

[10] William Paterson Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Wayne, NJ 07470 USA

[11] RAS, SB, Inst Forest, Krasnoyarsk 660036, Russia

[12] Siberian Fed Univ, Lab Ecosyst Biogeochem, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia

[13] Siberian Fed Univ, Inst Humanities, Krasnoyarsk 660041, Russia

[14] Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Rovaniemi Unit, Rovaniemi, Finland

[15] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[16] Univ Arizona, Tree Ring Res Lab, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA

[17] CONICET Mendoza, Inst Argentino Nivol Glaciol & Ciencias Ambiental, RA-5500 Mendoza, Argentina

[18] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Cold & Arid Reg Environm & Engn Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China

关键词: Paleoclimate;    Climate change;    Proxy data;    Dendrochronology;    Dendroclimatology;   

DOI  :  10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.05.009

来源: Elsevier

【 摘 要 】

Tree-ring chronologies are widely used to reconstruct high-to low-frequency variations in growing season temperatures over centuries to millennia. The relevance of these timeseries in large-scale climate reconstructions is often determined by the strength of their correlation against instrumental temperature data. However, this single criterion ignores several important quantitative and qualitative characteristics of tree-ring chronologies. Those characteristics are (i) data homogeneity, (ii) sample replication, (iii) growth coherence, (iv) chronology development, and (v) climate signal including the correlation with instrumental data. Based on these 5 characteristics, a reconstruction-scoring scheme is proposed and applied to 39 published, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from Asia, Europe, North America, and the Southern Hemisphere. Results reveal no reconstruction scores highest in every category and each has their own strengths and weaknesses. Reconstructions that perform better overall include N-Scan and Finland from Europe, E-Canada from North America, Yamal and Dzhelo from Asia. Reconstructions performing less well include W-Himalaya and Karakorum from Asia, Tatra and S-Finland from Europe, and Great Basin from North America. By providing a comprehensive set of criteria to evaluate tree-ring chronologies we hope to improve the development of large-scale temperature reconstructions spanning the past millennium. All reconstructions and their corresponding scores are provided at www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

【 授权许可】

Free