Spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis of malaria in Hubei Province, China from 2004–2011

Malaria Journal

Research

Zhijie Zhang¹  Liqian Sun¹  Yunzhou Fan²  Shaofa Nie²  Jing Xia³  Wen Lin⁴  Shunxiang Cai⁴  Huaxun Zhang⁴  Bianrong Chang⁵  Juan Qiu⁵ 

[1] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P R China;Laboratory for Spatial Analysis and Modelling, School of Public Health, Fudan University, 200032, Shanghai, China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 430079, Wuhan, China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 430079, Wuhan, China;Institute of parasitic disease Control, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 430079, Wuhan, China;Institute of parasitic disease Control, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 430079, Wuhan, China;Key Laboratory of Monitoring and Estimate for Environment and Disaster of Hubei Province, Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 430077, Wuhan, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049, Beijing, China;

关键词: Spatial;    Temporal;    Spatiotemporal;    Analysis;    Malaria;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12936-015-0650-2

 received in 2014-08-03, accepted in 2015-03-15,  发布年份 2015

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundMalaria remains a public health concern in Hubei Province despite the significant decrease in malaria incidence over the past decades. Furthermore, history reveals that malaria transmission is unstable and prone to local outbreaks in Hubei Province. Thus, understanding spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of malaria is needed for the effective control and elimination of this disease in Hubei Province.MethodsAnnual malaria incidence at the county level was calculated using the malaria cases reported from 2004 to 2011 in Hubei Province. Geographical information system (GIS) and spatial scan statistic method were used to identify spatial clusters of malaria cases at the county level. Pure retrospective temporal analysis scanning was performed to detect the temporal clusters of malaria cases with high rates using the discrete Poisson model. The space-time cluster was detected with high rates through the retrospective space-time analysis scanning using the discrete Poisson model.ResultsThe overall malaria incidence decreased to a low level from 2004 to 2011. The purely spatial cluster of malaria cases from 2004 to 2011 showed that the disease was not randomly distributed in the study area. A total of 11 high-risk counties were determined through Local Moran’s I analysis from 2004 to 2011. The method of spatial scan statistics identified different 11 significant spatial clusters between 2004 and 2011. The space-time clustering analysis determined that the most likely cluster included 13 counties, and the time frame was from April 2004 to November 2007.ConclusionsThe GIS application and scan statistical technique can provide means to detect spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal distribution of malaria, as well as to identify malaria high-risk areas. This study could be helpful in prioritizing resource assignment in high-risk areas for future malaria control and elimination.

【 授权许可】

Unknown   
© Xia et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2015. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.