Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Malaria Journal

Research

Carel Pretorius¹  Rachel Sanders¹  Guy Mahiane¹  Matthew Hamilton¹  Elric Werst¹  Eline L. Korenromp¹  Daniel J. Weiss²  Ewan Cameron²  Peter W. Gething²  Samir Bhatt³  Thomas Smith⁴  Olivier Briët⁴  Richard Cibulskis⁵ 

[1] Avenir Health, PO box 2100, Geneva, 1 route de Morillons/150 Route de Ferney (WCC, office 164), 1211, Geneva 2, Switzerland;Avenir Health, Glastonbury, USA;Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK;Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK;Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland;University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland;World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme, Geneva, Switzerland;

关键词: Malaria;    Prevention;    Treatment;    Mortality;    Morbidity;    Health impact;    Programmes;    Policy evaluation;    Strategic planning;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12936-017-1705-3

 received in 2016-11-02, accepted in 2017-01-19,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundScale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. This article presents a new modelling tool projecting malaria infection, cases and deaths to support impact evaluation, target setting and strategic planning.MethodsNested in the Spectrum suite of programme planning tools, the model includes historic estimates of case incidence and deaths in groups aged up to 4, 5–14, and 15+ years, and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection (PfPR) among children 2–9 years, for 43 sub-Saharan African countries and their 602 provinces, from the WHO and malaria atlas project. Impacts over 2016–2030 are projected for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and effective management of uncomplicated cases (CMU) and severe cases (CMS), using statistical functions fitted to proportional burden reductions simulated in the P. falciparum dynamic transmission model OpenMalaria.ResultsIn projections for Nigeria, ITNs, IRS, CMU, and CMS scale-up reduced health burdens in all age groups, with largest proportional and especially absolute reductions in children up to 4 years old. Impacts increased from 8 to 10 years following scale-up, reflecting dynamic effects. For scale-up of each intervention to 80% effective coverage, CMU had the largest impacts across all health outcomes, followed by ITNs and IRS; CMS and SMC conferred additional small but rapid mortality impacts.DiscussionSpectrum-Malaria’s user-friendly interface and intuitive display of baseline data and scenario projections holds promise to facilitate capacity building and policy dialogue in malaria programme prioritization. The module’s linking to the OneHealth Tool for costing will support use of the software for strategic budget allocation. In settings with moderately low coverage levels, such as Nigeria, improving case management and achieving universal coverage with ITNs could achieve considerable burden reductions. Projections remain to be refined and validated with local expert input data and actual policy scenarios.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2017

【 图 表 】

Scheme 1

12951_2016_223_Article_IEq1.gif

12951_2017_255_Article_IEq50.gif

Fig. 1