Analysing trends and forecasting malaria epidemics in Madagascar using a sentinel surveillance network: a web-based application

Malaria Journal

Research

Laurence Randrianasolo¹  Milijaona Randrianarivelojosia¹  Fanjasoa Rakotomanana¹  Patrice Piola¹  Maherisoa Ratsitorahina²  Lea Randriamampionona²  Florian Girond³  Christophe Rogier⁴  Sixte Zigiumugabe⁵  Judith Hedje⁶  Morgan Mangeas⁷  Vincent Herbreteau⁷  Télesphore Yao Brou⁸ 

[1] Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;Ministry of Health, Antananarivo, Madagascar;Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L’Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France;Elimination 8 (E8), Windhoek, Namibia;Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar;Unité de recherche sur les maladies infectieuses et tropicales émergentes (URMITE), UMR 6236, Marseille, France;Institute for Biomedical Research of the French Armed Forces (IRBA), Brétigny sur Orge, France;U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, Antananarivo, Madagascar;U.S. President’s Malaria Initiative, Antananarivo, Madagascar;Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA;UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L’Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France;UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UAG, UM, UR), Station SEAS-OI, Saint-Pierre, 175 CD 26, 97414, L’Entre-Deux, Ile de la Réunion, France;Université de la Réunion, Saint-Denis, Ile de la Réunion, France;

关键词: Malaria;    Normalize Difference Vegetation Index;    Malaria Case;    Indoor Residual Spraying;    Short Message Service;   

DOI  :  10.1186/s12936-017-1728-9

 received in 2016-11-22, accepted in 2017-02-08,  发布年份 2017

来源: Springer

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundThe use of a malaria early warning system (MEWS) to trigger prompt public health interventions is a key step in adding value to the epidemiological data routinely collected by sentinel surveillance systems.MethodsThis study describes a system using various epidemic thresholds and a forecasting component with the support of new technologies to improve the performance of a sentinel MEWS. Malaria-related data from 21 sentinel sites collected by Short Message Service are automatically analysed to detect malaria trends and malaria outbreak alerts with automated feedback reports.ResultsRoll Back Malaria partners can, through a user-friendly web-based tool, visualize potential outbreaks and generate a forecasting model. The system already demonstrated its ability to detect malaria outbreaks in Madagascar in 2014.ConclusionThis approach aims to maximize the usefulness of a sentinel surveillance system to predict and detect epidemics in limited-resource environments.

【 授权许可】

CC BY   
© The Author(s) 2017