Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps: Navigating uncertainty in environmental flow management

Frontiers in Environmental Science

Environmental Science

Nick Bond¹  Meegan Judd¹  Avril C. Horne² 

[1] Centre for Freshwater Ecosystems, La Trobe University, Wodonga, VIC, Australia;Department of Engineering, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia;

关键词: environmental flow;    uncertainty;    decision making;    climate change;    adaptation;   

DOI  :  10.3389/fenvs.2023.1074896

 received in 2022-10-20, accepted in 2023-02-07,  发布年份 2023

来源: Frontiers

【 摘 要 】

Uncertainty can be an impediment to decision making and result in decision paralysis. In environmental flow management, system complexity and natural variability increase uncertainty. Climate change provides further uncertainty and can hinder decision making altogether. Environmental flow managers express reluctance to include climate change adaptation in planning due to large knowledge gaps in hydro-ecological relationships. We applied a hybrid method of hypothetical scenarios and closed ended questions within a survey to investigate ecological trade off decision making behaviours and cognitive processes of environmental flow managers. The scenarios provided were both similar to participants’ past experiences, and others were entirely unprecedented and hence unfamiliar. We found managers were more confident making decisions in situations they are familiar with, and most managers show low levels of confidence in making trade off decisions under uncertain circumstances. When given a choice, the most common response to uncertainty was to gather additional information, however information is often unavailable or inaccessible–either it does not exist, or uncertainties are so great that decisions are deferred. Given future rainfall is likely to be different from the past, environmental flow managers must work to adopt robust decision making frameworks that will increase confidence in decision making by acknowledging uncertainties. This can be done through tools developed to address decision making under deep uncertainty. Adapting these tools and methods to environmental flow management will ensure managers can begin to consider likely, necessary future trade-offs in a more informed, transparent and robust manner and increase confidence in decision making under uncertainty.

【 授权许可】

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Copyright © 2023 Judd, Horne and Bond.