Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Wellcome Open Research

article

John Ojal¹  Samuel P. C. Brand³  Vincent Were⁵  Emelda A. Okiro⁶  Ivy K. Kombe¹  Caroline Mburu¹  Rabia Aziza³  Morris Ogero⁵  Ambrose Agweyu¹  George M. Warimwe¹  Sophie Uyoga¹  Ifedayo M. O. Adetifa¹  J. Anthony G. Scott¹  Edward Otieno⁵  Lynette I. Ochola-Oyier¹  Charles N. Agoti¹  Kadondi Kasera⁸  Patrick Amoth⁸  Mercy Mwangangi⁸  Rashid Aman⁸  Wangari Ng’ang’a⁹  Benjamin Tsofa¹  Philip Bejon¹  Edwine Barasa⁵  Matt J. Keeling³  D. James Nokes¹ 

[1] Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme;Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine;The Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research ,(SBIDER), University of Warwick;School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick;Health Economics Research Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research Programme;Population Health Unit, Kenya Medical Research Institute - Wellcome Trust Research programme;School of Public Health, Pwani University;Ministry of Health;Presidential Policy & Strategy Unit;Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    Kenya;    dynamic model;    serology;    PCR cases;   

DOI  :  10.12688/wellcomeopenres.16748.3

学科分类：内科医学

来源: Wellcome

【 摘 要 】

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.

【 授权许可】

CC BY