Estimating the Percentage of a Population Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Using the Number of Reported Deaths: A Policy Planning Tool

Pathogens

Daniel R. Feikin¹  Marc-Alain Widdowson²  Kim Mulholland³ 

[1] Independent Consultant, 1296 Geneva, Switzerland;Institute of Tropical Medicine, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium;Royal Children’s Hospital, Melbourne, Australia, and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK;

关键词: SARS-CoV-2;    coronavirus;    Covid19;    sero-prevalence;    serology;    low- and middle-income countries;   

DOI  :  10.3390/pathogens9100838

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

The magnitude of future waves of Covid19 in a population will depend, in part, on the percentage of that population already infected, recovered, and presumably immune. Sero-epidemiological surveys can define the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in various populations. However, sero-surveys are resource-intensive and methodologically challenging, limiting widespread use. We propose a relatively simple method for calculating the percentage of a population infected, which depends on the number of reported Covid19 deaths, a figure usually more reliable and less dependent on variable testing practices than the total number of reported Covid19 cases, and the infection fatality rate, a figure that is relatively stable in similar populations. The method can be applied in different sized areas, such as states, districts, or cities. Such an approach can provide useful, real-time estimates of probable population immunity in settings unable to undertake multiple sero-surveys. This method is applicable to low- and lower-middle-income country (LMIC) settings where sero-survey data will likely be limited; however, better estimates of infection fatality rates and Covid19 death counts in LMICs are needed to improve the method’s accuracy. Information on the percentage of a population infected will help public health authorities in planning for future waves of Covid19, including where to most effectively deploy vaccines.

【 授权许可】

Unknown