Planning protected areas network that are relevant today and under future climate change is possible: the case of Atlantic Forest endemic birds

PeerJ

article

Mariana M. Vale¹  Thiago V. Souza⁴  Maria Alice S. Alves⁵  Renato Crouzeilles⁶ 

[1] Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro;Instituto de Recursos Naturales, Laboratorio Internacional de Cambio Global;Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change—Rede Clima;Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro;Ecology Department, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro;Rio Conservation and Sustainability Science Centre, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro;Instituto Internacional de Sustentabilidade

关键词: Biodiversity;    Decision-making;    GIS;    Brazil;    Systematic conservation planning;    Ecological niche modelling;   

DOI  :  10.7717/peerj.4689

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: Inra

【 摘 要 】

BackgroundA key strategy in biodiversity conservation is the establishment of protected areas. In the future, however, the redistribution of species in response to ongoing climate change is likely to affect species’ representativeness in those areas. Here we quantify the effectiveness of planning protected areas network to represent 151 birds endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest hotspot, under current and future climate change conditions for 2050.MethodsWe combined environmental niche modeling and systematic conservation planning using both a county and a regional level planning strategy. We recognized the conflict between biodiversity conservation and economic development, including socio-economic targets (as opposed to biological only) and using planning units that are meaningful for policy-makers.ResultsWe estimated an average contraction of 29,500 km283% of the species.DiscussionOur results indicate that: (i) planning protected areas network currently can be useful to represent species under climate change; (ii) the overlapped planning units in the best solution for both current and future conditions can be considered as “no regret” areas; (iii) priority counties are spread throughout the biome, providing specific guidance wherever the possibility of creating protected area arises; and (iv) decisions can occur at different administrative spheres (Federal, State or County) as we found quite similar numerical solutions using either county or regional level strategies.

【 授权许可】

CC BY