The Impact of Possible Decadal-Scale Cold Waves on Viticulture over Europe in a Context of Global Warming

Agronomy

Nathalie Ollat¹  Cornelis van Leeuwen¹  Didier Swingedouw²  Giovanni Sgubin²  Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri³ 

[1] Ecophysiologie et Génomique Fonctionnelle de la Vigne (EGFV), Bordeaux Sciences Agro, University Bordeaux, INRA, ISVV, 33882 Villenave d’Ornon, France;Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), University Bordeaux, 33615 Pessac, France;Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), US1116-Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France;

关键词: climate change;    Vitis vinifera L.;    general circulation model;    EURO-CORDEX;    phenological model;   

DOI  :  10.3390/agronomy9070397

来源: DOAJ

【 摘 要 】

A comprehensive analysis of all the possible impacts of future climate change is crucial for strategic plans of adaptation for viticulture. Assessments of future climate are generally based on the ensemble mean of state-of-the-art climate model projections, which prefigures a gradual warming over Europe for the 21st century. However, a few models project single or multiple O(10) year temperature drops over the North Atlantic due to a collapsing subpolar gyre (SPG) oceanic convection. The occurrence of these decadal-scale “cold waves” may have strong repercussions over the continent, yet their actual impact is ruled out in a multi-model ensemble mean analysis. Here, we investigate these potential implications for viticulture over Europe by coupling dynamical downscaled EUR-CORDEX temperature projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCP)4.5 scenario from seven different climate models—including CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 exhibiting a SPG convection collapse—with three different phenological models simulating the main developmental stages of the grapevine. The 21st century temperature increase projected by all the models leads to an anticipation of all the developmental stages of the grapevine, shifting the optimal region for a given grapevine variety northward, and making climatic conditions suitable for high-quality wine production in some European regions that are currently not. However, in the CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 model, this long-term warming trend is suddenly interrupted by decadal-scale cold waves, abruptly pushing the suitability pattern back to conditions that are very similar to the present. These findings are crucial for winemakers in the evaluation of proper strategies to face climate change, and, overall, provide additional information for long-term plans of adaptation, which, so far, are mainly oriented towards the possibility of continuous warming conditions.

【 授权许可】

Unknown