Atmosphere | |
Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany | |
Susanne Pfeifer3  Katharina Bülow3  Andreas Gobiet2  Andreas Hänsler3  Manfred Mudelsee1  Juliane Otto3  Diana Rechid3  Claas Teichmann3  Daniela Jacob3  | |
[1] Climate Risk Analysis, 37581 Bad Gandersheim, Germany; E-Mail:;Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, 8010 Graz, Austria; E-Mail:;Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Climate Service Center 2.0, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany; E-Mails: | |
关键词: regional climate models; climate change; robustness; precipitation; Germany; EURO-CORDEX; ENSEMBLES; | |
DOI : 10.3390/atmos6050677 | |
来源: mdpi | |
【 摘 要 】
Climate signal maps can be used to identify regions where robust climate changes can be derived from an ensemble of climate change simulations. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Climate signal maps do not show all information available from the model ensemble, but give a condensed view in order to be useful for non-climate scientists who have to assess climate change impact during the course of their work. Three different ensembles of regional climate projections have been analyzed regarding changes of seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (defined as the number of days exceeding the 95th percentile threshold of daily precipitation) for Germany, using climate signal maps. Although the models used and the scenario assumptions differ for the three ensembles (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5
【 授权许可】
CC BY
© 2015 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
【 预 览 】
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RO202003190012498ZK.pdf | 18911KB | download |